The market for Citrus aurantium has been sluggish in the past two years, with prices falling to the lowest in the past decade before new production in 2024. After the new production started at the end of May, as news of production cuts spread, the market rose rapidly, with an increase of more than 60% in just a few days. Merchants mainly circulate, and market transactions are relatively inactive. The market outlook is affected by merchants and the purchasing power of funds.
The market performance of citrus Aurantii in the past two years has not been optimistic, and the price has been gradually declining. The merchants who operate the supply of goods circulate quickly can only earn the middle price difference, and the large goods are retained for a long time. In the end, There is basically no profit, and there are even a lot of losses.
In mid-May, the main production area of Hunan entered a new production season. At that time, the market for citrus aurantium remained flat. By the end of the 24th, the price of 1.0-2.0 lime citrus aurantium was still between 31-32RMB, but At the end of May and the beginning of June, as the supply of goods accelerated, the market began to rise sharply. On June 5, the quotation from the place of origin reached 47RMB, which increased by RMB15 yuan in just about ten days. It was unexpected. Why was citrus Aurantii produced this year? Is there such a big contrast between the market conditions before and after the new year?
1.In recent years, inventory accumulation prices have fallen to the lowest level in the past ten years.
Citrus aurantium has a high price of RMB90 yuan in history (in 2016), and it was around RMB80 yuan before the new production in 2017-2018. After the new production in 2018, the market went down, to RMB35 yuan in 2020, and rebounded to RMB55 yuan in 2021 due to production reduction. Lasting until 2022, the output in 2022-2023 was relatively normal, inventory accumulated, and the market gradually declined. Until the new production in 2024, the price in the production area fell below RMB30 yuan, reaching the lowest point in the past decade.
2. Recently, the number of merchants purchasing goods from new production areas has increased rapidly, and the market has risen rapidly.
Before the launch of new products in May this year, Citrus aurantium still failed to change its market sluggish state, and the market continued to be weak. Most merchants believed that the market pressure would be further intensified as Citrus aurantium has a sufficient amount of existing products and new products will soon be available. It is difficult to see positive results when the market is large, but what is unexpected is that at the end of May, as the new production continued, the number of merchants purchasing goods from the origin suddenly increased, and the supply of goods immediately became smoother. As the transaction volume continued to increase, the market ushered in a positive trend. Continuously rising, recently the asking price of 1.0-2.0 lime citrus aurantium balls produced in Hunan Yuanjiang has reached RMB 51-53, and the half-and-half price is close to RMB50 yuan. Compared with last month, the price has increased by more than 60RMB in just a few dozen days, which can be described as a skyrocketing increase.
3.Why is there such a big contrast in market conditions before and after this year’s new product launch?
Why was citrus Aurantii’s market calm before its new product launch? The popularity of Citrus aurantium has been low in the past two years. In addition, the fruit trees planted during the high price period in previous years have been in the fruit-bearing period in recent years. With the normalization of the climate, the output has continued to be stable in recent years. In addition, the market sales of Citrus aurantium have been mediocre in recent years. Coupled with the influence of miscellaneous citrus aurantium in various places and the accumulation of inventory, the market price of citrus aurantium has been declining year by year, which has further led to a decline in the business confidence of merchants in the origin. In addition, although there will be freezing snow in the main production areas of Hunan and Jiangxi in 2023, and heavy rains this year, according to the observation of the production areas, the flowering period this year is relatively normal, and everyone believes that there will be no major changes in the output this year, so early merchants are paying attention It has never been high. Even if the price is low in the place of origin, it has not attracted special attention from everyone.
So why did the movement of supply accelerate and the market rise rapidly after the new production started? Although the flowering period of citrus aurantium in the main producing areas of Hunan and Jiangxi this year seems relatively normal, in the later fruit setting period, especially after the harvest period, it is actually found that the fruit setting rate is not as good as expected. At this time, the production areas have reduced production. News began to spread, and some places with severe production cuts reported reductions of about 40%! As the situation became clearer, supply movement in the production area began to speed up quietly after the start of new production in mid-May. However, at this time, most of the transactions were old goods, and merchants with abundant supplies were more active in selling, selling old goods and preparing to receive new goods. Therefore, At this time, there was no obvious change in the market. By late May, as new goods were gradually produced in batches, the production areas received large purchases from Anguo merchants, and the transaction volume of goods continued to increase. As the supply of new goods exceeded demand, the production area The market prices in the district are rising day by day. Recently, there has been a phenomenon in the production areas that those who have the goods are reluctant to sell them, while those who want the goods still have a strong desire to buy. Due to the hot sales, the processing households in the production areas are rushing to collect fresh goods, and the price of fruits has also risen to A high of RMB12yuan/kilogram.
In addition to the main production areas of Hunan and Jiangxi, sub-production areas such as Sichuan, Chongqing, and Yunnan also reported significant production reductions this year, and the volume of goods received by buyers in many places dropped significantly compared with previous years.
Generally speaking, the price of Citrus aurantium is at the lowest price in the past ten years. The Chinese herbal medicine market has been booming in the past two years. Now it has experienced production cuts again. Merchants’ attention has increased during the new production period. Funds have intervened to actively build positions, which has boosted the market. Rapid and substantial rises in the short term.
4. Market outlook analysis
Merchants report that the current inventory of citrus Aurantii is still large, but the production area of small round balls has been out of stock earlier. Recently, Anguo merchants have actively purchased small round balls in Hunan production areas, which is the main reason for the rise in the market. However, even if The recent increase has been very large, and many merchants in the production areas are still not selling goods. They are mainly engaged in circulation. On the one hand, merchants are still worried about the decline in the market in the past two years. On the other hand, the risk of excessive recent increases has increased, and merchants are also wary. . In terms of the market, since citrus aurantium is not a bulk variety, although the market prices in the production areas have increased significantly recently, market transactions are not very active, and the popularity is temporarily lower than that of the production areas. It is more based on actual demand.
For the market outlook, the supply of goods should not be the main factor affecting changes in citrus aurantium conditions. The purchasing power of merchants and funds will still determine its trend.
Post time: Jun-21-2024